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Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These Expected Goals stats from Newcastle 2 Spurs 2:

Newcastle United 1.96 Everton 0.79

As you can see, Newcastle United with an Expected Goals stat that is almost two and a half times bigger than the Spurs one.

This matches what we saw with our own eyes.

It is backed up by the fact that Newcastle United also had so many more shots than Spurs (19 v 8).

With then Vicario making some massive saves, whilst Spurs only had two shots on target and they scored from both of them, Newcastle 7 v 2 advantage with efforts on target. This doesn’t of course include Joelinton hitting the post, nor two clearances by defenders off the line.

As well as more possession (53% v 47%) and more corners (11 v 8), Newcastle United also had almost twice as many (38 v 22) touches of the ball in the opposition penalty area.

It is absolute nonsense to talk about Spurs deserving anything from this match, based on how the game went overall and how many clear chances created by the two sides, as well as the other supporting stats.

United should have won BUT that is football for you, sometimes the side that is clear second best can still get a draw (or even win…) plenty times because of all the factors (keeper having a blinder, luck, fine margins, key moments not going your way etc etc) that make us both love and hate football in equal measures.

Newcastle 2 Spurs 2 – Tuesday 2 December 2025 8.15pm

Match Stats

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Bruno 71, Gordon 86 pen

Spurs:

Romero 78, 90+5

Possession was Newcastle 53% Spurs 47%

Total shots were Newcastle 19 Spurs 8

Shots on target were Newcastle 7 Spurs 2

Corners were Newcastle 11 Spurs 8

Touches in the opposition box Newcastle 38 Spurs 22

Newcastle team v Spurs:

Ramsdale, Livramento, Thiaw, Burn, Hall, Joelinton, Tonali (Bruno 46), Miley (Schar 93), Barnes (Gordon 66), Jacob Murphy (Elanga 66), Woltemade

Unused subs:

Ruddy, Willock, Ramsey, Neave, Alex Murphy


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