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Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These Expected Goals stats from Sunderland 1 Newcastle 0:

Sunderland 0.29 Newcastle United 0.25

As you can see, Sunderland with a better Expected Goals stat than Newcastle United.

However, the reality is that the threat from either side was all but non-existent on Sunday afternoon. You would need a magnifying glass to spot it.

Newcastle United didn’t create any quality chances, nor did Sunderland.

Bruno Guimaraes had two efforts on target from outside the box that were never going to beat the keeper. Whilst the only Sunderland effort on target was a shot from a narrow angle in the 72nd minute that was never going to trouble Ramsdale.

As you can see with the other underlying stats below, Newcastle having more shots (6 v 5), more efforts on target (2 v 1), more possession (54% v 46%), more corners (6 v 3).

However, the most telling stat is that the two teams only had 14 touches each in the other side’s penalty area absolutely feeble.

This matches what we saw with our own eyes.

I feel really sorry for Nick Woltemade, he turned a standard cross into a stunning own goal, which basically was the only real threat on either goal in the entire match.

Sunderland 1 Newcastle 0 – Sunday 14 December 2025 2pm

Match Stats

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Sunderland:

Woltemade OG 46

Possession was Newcastle 54% Sunderland 46%

Total shots were Newcastle 6 Sunderland 5

Shots on target were Newcastle 2 Sunderland 1

Corners were Newcastle 6 Sunderland 3

Touches in the opposition box Newcastle 14 Sunderland 14

Newcastle team v Sunderland:

Ramsdale, Livramento, Thiaw, Burn (Schar 42), Hall, Tonali (Willock 59), Miley, Bruno, Gordon (Barnes 59), Woltemade (Wissa 75), Elanga (Jacob Murphy 59)

Unused subs:

Ruddy, Joelinton, Alex Murphy, Ramsey


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